DTN Midday Grain Comments 03/01 10:47
Mixed Midday for Grains Monday
Corn is 2 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is 3
to 6 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is sharply higher with the Dow up 650 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.06 higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies
are firmer with crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is mostly higher, led by hogs.
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $7.80.
Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with spread trade weakening as
early gains fade, while December clings to small gains. Ethanol production
should continue to rebound with trade looking for better margins into the
second quarter as spring driving season commences and the energy complex
remaining near the highs, along with rising Brazilian ethanol values. Trade
will continue to look for further export-sale confirmations with the daily wire
quiet in recent days. Weekly inspections improved to 1.637 million metric tons.
Basis should remain sideways short term as warmer weather will help to improve
movement. Double crop planting in Brazil is well underway as well but behind
the usual pace. On the May contract, resistance is the 20-day at $5.47, which
we are just below at midday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $5.34 as support.
Soybeans is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade fading off the early
highs while spread action is mixed as we look for changes in shipping pace,
along with Brazil harvest progress and drier weather in Argentina. Meal is flat
to $1.00 higher, and oil is 0.10 cent to 0.20 cent higher. Basis will likely
remain flat at strong levels with slower movement as the export program winds
down and a bigger focus is on crush margins with export inspections still
decent at 879,582 metric tons. Brazil should remain rainy in the short term for
most, with Argentina seeing broadly drier trend. The May chart has resistance
at the upper Bollinger Band at $14,23, with support the 20-day at $13.83.
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher overnight with trade drifting after the
Friday washout, with mixed northern Hemisphere weather battling against the
stronger dollar and weaker intramonth spreads. The dollar is just below 91
points on the index, getting back to the upper end of the range. The Plains
should see warmer weather, bringing the crop closer to exiting dormancy soon
with some dry pockets persisting, spotty light rains possible across the
Plains. KC is at 28-cent discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is at 22-cent
discount with mixed action so far. KC May chart support is the 20-day at $6.36,
which we are below at midday, with resistance the fresh high at $6.62.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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