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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/01 10:47

   Mixed Midday for Grains Monday

   Corn is 2 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is 3 
to 6 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is sharply higher with the Dow up 650 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.06 higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies 
are firmer with crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is mostly higher, led by hogs. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $7.80.


   Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with spread trade weakening as 
early gains fade, while December clings to small gains. Ethanol production 
should continue to rebound with trade looking for better margins into the 
second quarter as spring driving season commences and the energy complex 
remaining near the highs, along with rising Brazilian ethanol values. Trade 
will continue to look for further export-sale confirmations with the daily wire 
quiet in recent days. Weekly inspections improved to 1.637 million metric tons. 
Basis should remain sideways short term as warmer weather will help to improve 
movement. Double crop planting in Brazil is well underway as well but behind 
the usual pace. On the May contract, resistance is the 20-day at $5.47, which 
we are just below at midday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $5.34 as support.


   Soybeans is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade fading off the early 
highs while spread action is mixed as we look for changes in shipping pace, 
along with Brazil harvest progress and drier weather in Argentina. Meal is flat 
to $1.00 higher, and oil is 0.10 cent to 0.20 cent higher. Basis will likely 
remain flat at strong levels with slower movement as the export program winds 
down and a bigger focus is on crush margins with export inspections still 
decent at 879,582 metric tons. Brazil should remain rainy in the short term for 
most, with Argentina seeing broadly drier trend. The May chart has resistance 
at the upper Bollinger Band at $14,23, with support the 20-day at $13.83.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher overnight with trade drifting after the 
Friday washout, with mixed northern Hemisphere weather battling against the 
stronger dollar and weaker intramonth spreads. The dollar is just below 91 
points on the index, getting back to the upper end of the range. The Plains 
should see warmer weather, bringing the crop closer to exiting dormancy soon 
with some dry pockets persisting, spotty light rains possible across the 
Plains. KC is at 28-cent discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is at 22-cent 
discount with mixed action so far. KC May chart support is the 20-day at $6.36, 
which we are below at midday, with resistance the fresh high at $6.62.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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