For a lot of Americans, beef isn’t just an occasional source of protein. It’s part of their cultural heritage. 

A lot of us grew up surrounded by the National Livestock and Meat Board’s catchy campaign slogans, which is why it’s hardly surprising that U.S. beef consumption is the highest of any country in the world. Unfortunately, American diners are now facing sky-high prices to match.

Federal Reserve Economic Data placed the price of ground beef at $6.25 per pound in July. That’s an increase of $0.71 since January. By contrast, steak prices have shot up by $0.97 per pound so far in 2025 to hit all-time highs of $11.88.

And right now, it looks like prices are only going to keep on rising.

Read on to find out why beef is so expensive in 2025, what the forecast is for beef prices, and when beef prices will start to come down.

Why Is Beef So Expensive in 2025?

Beef prices in 2025 have soared to historic highs across the U.S. and beyond. Several interrelated forces are converging to shrink supplies and lift prices for consumers.

America’s Cattle Herd Is Shrinking

The single greatest factor affecting beef prices right now is supply. 

This year, the U.S. cattle inventory dropped to around 86 million heads. That represents the herd’s smallest size since 1951, and things are going to get worse before they get better.

So, why has inventory declined?

A lot of it has to do with a prolonged three-year drought that’s hit America’s key cattle regions hard. This has led to increased feed costs, which has pushed a lot of ranchers to liquidate breeding cattle.

As you can imagine, these short-term decisions have long-term impacts on the supply cycle.

It doesn’t take a hardened ranch hand to know that livestock operates on long production cycles. A lot of producers operate on a 10-year cycle — and because it takes at least two years for new calves to reach butcher weight, USDA forecasts reckon that herd numbers won’t catch up with demand until 2031.

Trade Disruption

Normally when our beef supply drops, overseas producers are eager to step in and fill in the gaps. And sure enough, the U.S. is currently operating at a trade deficit for beef. It’s expected to hit 1.8 billion pounds by the end of 2025, which is the highest trade deficit America has seen since 2003.

Unfortunately, some of our second-tier suppliers are facing similar issues.

A parasite outbreak in Mexico triggered trade restrictions on cattle imports earlier in 2025. That’s a huge issue for traders here in the U.S., because Mexican imports generally account for about a fifth of America’s total beef imports.

Unfortunately, it’s been tricky getting help from other key global players because of President Donald Trump’s administration’s sweeping tariff regime. The introduction of high tariffs has complicated the process of importing beef from other countries.

We’re currently importing 28% more beef than we were this time last year. And with a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports taking effect on Aug. 1, those imports just got a lot more expensive.

Despite those encroaching costs, U.S. markets don’t appear to be slowing down to keep up with sky-high demand. As a result, these high import costs are inevitably being passed on to consumers.

Consumer Demand Remains Strong

You’d think with supply dwindling and the high cost of imports, consumer demand for beef might cool. But demand is actually growing.

The average American consumes around 225 pounds of meat every year, and beef represents over 28% of that annual consumption. And when you break down the numbers,‌ most shoppers are prepared to pay the price to keep beef on the menu.

At the start of the summer, American families were spending $35.47 per person on beef every month. Adjusted for inflation, that’s a 7% rise over the first half of 2025 and a 9% year- increase.

With the USDA forecasting beef prices to finish 2025 at a 9.9% rise, that means consumer spend is roughly keeping pace with rampant price hikes. Shoppers might not be happy with the rapidly rising cost of beef, but it’s not hurting sales numbers.

What Is the Forecast for Beef Prices?

There are a few different price forecasts worth looking at when trying to develop a picture of where prices are going to land in the coming months. But the most important forecast for American families is the retail price outlook.

Right now, the USDA is expecting beef to rise by 9.9%. That’s within a prediction interval of 7.2% to 12.9%, and it represents the price increase you can expect to see when you’re ringing up at the register.

Things on the wholesale market are proving a little harder to forecast.

Farm-level cattle prices are expected to increase by 21.4% over 2025, although the margin of error on this number is pretty large. The reason market watchers can’t pin this number down is because of increasingly strained supply chains and herd-rebuilding strategies.

Meanwhile, the USDA has estimated wholesale beef prices will increase by 10.5% in 2025. The prediction interval on this one falls between 3.3% and 19.1%. So again, wholesale prices are pretty up in the air.

In the end, the trajectory of beef prices depends a lot on seasonal relief that'll enable ranchers to realize production gains. When U.S. herd numbers recover, prices will start to come down.

When Will Beef Prices Start to Come Down?

Unfortunately, beef prices aren’t going to come down any time soon.

The markets may benefit from short-term seasonal relief as the quarter progresses. Barbecue season is winding down, and demand traditionally contracts across September and October. That should give producers more leeway and let supply catch up with demand. But once the holidays roll around, demand is expected to ramp up again.

The bottom line is this: Until herd rebuilding yields enough supply to meet America’s strong demand, prices are going to remain high.

Market watchers are expecting ranchers to retain more heifers into 2026, which will enable them to increase headcounts. But this process won’t bear fruit until at least the start of 2027. And because cows take at least two years to reach market weight, the U.S. shouldn’t expect a significant domestic supply increase until late 2027 or early 2028.

That means retail beef prices are going to keep rising. Unless sudden policy adjustments or macroeconomic shifts accelerate a return to balance, shoppers had better brace for impact. This is going to be the new normal for a while for the next couple of years.

On the date of publication, Nash Riggins did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.